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Rice Owls
1-0 · #189 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium · 80° · Mostly sunny
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
10-2 last yr · #6 Elo
Spread ND -44.5Total 45.5Moneyline RICE +4237 · ND -50882 books · best RICE +4573 kalshi · ND -4900 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ND -5088
96%
model margin ND by 30.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
RICE +44.5
55%
13.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 45.5
52%
model total 50.9
The read
On rating alone Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 27.5 points better (#6 vs #189 of 240), and ND add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: ND passing ranks #10, RICE defends it at #116; the other way RICE #121 into ND's #8. The model lands on ND by 30.6 against a market ND by 44.5, so the spread lean is RICE by 13.9 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 50.9 against 45.5.
Who has the edge
Model: ND by 30.6 · market ND by 44.5
Rating
Clear edge
ND
ND rated 27.5 points better on Elo (#6 vs #189).
Home & rest
Clear edge
ND
ND gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
ND
ND passing ranks #10, RICE defends it at #116; the other way RICE #121 into ND's #8.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
ND
ND rushing ranks #11, RICE defends it at #102; the other way RICE #101 into ND's #37.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
ND
ND third-down conversion ranks #13, RICE defends it at #114; the other way RICE #116 into ND's #39.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
ND
ND +33.6 per game over the last five, RICE +28.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
ND
Consensus has ND by 44.5; the model says ND by 30.6.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: ND by 30.6 · market ND by 44.5
Rice OwlsNotre Dame Fighting Irish
1373 Elo · #189
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ND +27.5 pts
1869 Elo · #6
road
Home field
ND +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−19.3 pts vs ND D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ND +32.4 pts
+13.2 pts vs RICE D
W · +28.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ND +2.8 pts
W W W W W · +33.6
−14.8
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
ND +39.2 pts
+24.4
RICE +44.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
ND +44.5 pts
ND -44.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ND rush explosiveness (#8) against a RICE defense ranked #131 at stopping it
- ▸ND turnovers / game (#9) against a RICE defense ranked #132 at stopping it
- ▸ND yards / pass attempt (#2) against a RICE defense ranked #123 at stopping it
- ▸ND passing-down ppa (#3) against a RICE defense ranked #122 at stopping it
- ▸ND defense (#16 pass success rate allowed) against a RICE offense ranked #131
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Rice Owls offense vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense
ranks of 135| RICE off | ND def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 28% | 56% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 64% | · |
| Plays / game | 57 | 53 | · |
| Possession / game | 32:43 | 30:42 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.12#121 | +0.09#8 | ND |
| Pass success rate | 33%#131 | 36%#16 | ND |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.67#28 | 1.60#92 | RICE |
| Yards / pass attempt | 5.7#132 | 6.2#20 | ND |
| Completion % | 66%#28 | 56%#15 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.3%#19 | 1.5%#121 | RICE |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.05#101 | +0.04#37 | ND |
| Rush success rate | 38%#112 | 38%#20 | ND |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.00#53 | 0.89#31 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.69#113 | 2.74#39 | ND |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#100 | 18%#74 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 73%#66 | 71%#65 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.1#88 | 3.0#10 | ND |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.08#88 | −0.03#16 | ND |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.02#132 | +0.17#17 | ND |
| Third-down conversion | 34%#116 | 35%#39 | ND |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.21#114 | 2.58#6 | ND |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 17.6%#108 | 18.4%#20 | ND |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.85#12 | 1.92#12 | · |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense vs Rice Owls defense
ranks of 135| ND off | RICE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 45% | 50% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 68% | · |
| Plays / game | 52 | 58 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:18 | 27:17 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.45#10 | +0.36#116 | ND |
| Pass success rate | 51%#6 | 39%#46 | ND |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.69#25 | 1.93#133 | ND |
| Yards / pass attempt | 9.5#2 | 8.3#123 | ND |
| Completion % | 67%#18 | 62%#65 | ND |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 6.5%#134 | 1.1%#131 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.25#11 | +0.16#102 | ND |
| Rush success rate | 47%#25 | 41%#55 | ND |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.16#8 | 1.17#131 | ND |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.05#50 | 3.02#97 | ND |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#99 | 17%#92 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 62%#121 | 64%#23 | RICE |
| Yards / rush | 5.9#2 | 4.7#96 | ND |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.23#13 | +0.16#105 | ND |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.65#3 | +0.43#122 | ND |
| Third-down conversion | 48%#13 | 44%#114 | ND |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.79#6 | 3.71#74 | ND |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.4%#38 | 13.5%#111 | ND |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.83#9 | 0.54#132 | ND |
Season
| RICE | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 10-2 |
| 31.0 | Points for / game | 42.0 |
| 3.0 | Points against / game | 17.6 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 6-1 / 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 6-6 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 6-6 |
| W | Last 5 | W W W W W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| RICE | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1373 | Elo | 1869 |
| #189 of 240 | Rank | #6 of 240 |
| −6.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +15.1 |
| +1.9 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +12.8 |
| 1425 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| RICE | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| −15.3 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +26.5 |
| 0.062 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.356 |
| 0.248 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.042 |
| 37% / 40% | Success rate (off / def) | 49% / 36% |
| 1.17 / 1.55 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.44 / 1.28 |
| 590 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 953 |
| 39% | Returning production | 51% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ND +27.5 pts
- Home field
- ND +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ND by 30.6
- Model total
- 50.9 vs 45.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- ND -44.5
- Total
- 45.5 · opened 52.5
- Moneyline
- RICE +4237 · ND -5088
- Best price
- RICE +4573 kalshi · ND -4900 polymarketus
| Book | ND spread | Total | RICE ML | ND ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +4573 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | — | 45.5 (-223/+213) | +3900 | -4900 |
Totalopened 52.5 · now 45.5 ▼ 7.0
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.