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Stony Brook Seawolves
0-1 last yr · #183 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium · 79° · 12 mph wind · Sunny
Ball State Cardinals
0-1 · #237 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline STBK +213 · BALL -1438
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
STBK +213
68%
model margin STBK by 8.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 53.6
The read
On rating alone Stony Brook Seawolves are 11.1 points better (#183 vs #237 of 240), and BALL add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: STBK by 8.0
Rating
Clear edge
STBK
STBK rated 11.1 points better on Elo (#237 vs #183).
Home & rest
Clear edge
BALL
BALL gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
STBK
BALL −53.0 per game over the last five, STBK −42.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: STBK by 8.0
Stony Brook SeawolvesBall State Cardinals
1380 Elo · #183
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
STBK +11.1 pts
1180 Elo · #237
road
Home field
BALL +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−0.9 pts vs BALL D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
STBK +1.5 pts
−2.5 pts vs STBK D
L · −42.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
STBK +5.5 pts
L · −53.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| STBK | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 0.0 | Points for / game | 3.0 |
| 42.0 | Points against / game | 56.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| STBK | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1380 | Elo | 1180 |
| #183 of 240 | Rank | #237 of 240 |
| −6.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −6.6 |
| −4.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −5.7 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1937 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- STBK +11.1 pts
- Home field
- BALL +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- STBK by 8.0
- Model total
- 53.6 vs —
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- STBK +213 · BALL -1438
- Best price
- STBK +213 polymarketus · BALL -1438 polymarketus
| Book | BALL spread | Total | STBK ML | BALL ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarketus | — | — | +213 | -1438 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.