The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
73%Ball State CardinalsStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BALL by 10.6market BALL by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.6 pointsmarket 52.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ball State Cardinals at 73% to win, with the market at BALL by 13.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Home field is with BALL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BALL by 10.6 against a market BALL by 13.5: 2.9 points of daylight in STBK's favour. The model's total is 53.6 against a line of 52.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BALL by 10.6 · market BALL by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
BALL
Slight advantage
BALL −18.6 per game over the last five, STBK −24.0.
Market
BALL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BALL by 13.5; the model says BALL by 10.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BALL by 13.5 · model BALL by 10.6
Mkt BALL 13.5
Model BALL 10.6
← STBK by 28tieBALL by 28 →
2.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 53.6
Mkt 52.5
Model 53.6
24 pts6096 pts
1.3% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 53.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
