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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
0-1 · #72 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 12:45 PM ET
Sanford Stadium · 83° · Partly sunny
Georgia Bulldogs
1-0 · #5 Elo
Spread UGA -35.5Total 52.5Moneyline WKU +3458 · UGA -5088
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
UGA -5088
91%
model margin UGA by 23.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
WKU +35.5
54%
12.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 52.5
50%
model total 51.2
The read
On rating alone Georgia Bulldogs are 20.1 points better (#5 vs #72 of 240), and UGA add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: UGA rushing ranks #45, WKU defends it at #61; the other way WKU #85 into UGA's #12. The model lands on UGA by 23.1 against a market UGA by 35.5, so the spread lean is WKU by 12.4 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%.
Who has the edge
Model: UGA by 23.1 · market UGA by 35.5
Rating
Clear edge
UGA
UGA rated 20.1 points better on Elo (#5 vs #72).
Home & rest
Clear edge
UGA
UGA gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Even
—
UGA passing ranks #34, WKU defends it at #29; the other way WKU #74 into UGA's #61.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
UGA
UGA rushing ranks #45, WKU defends it at #61; the other way WKU #85 into UGA's #12.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
WKU third-down conversion ranks #25, UGA defends it at #36; the other way UGA #35 into WKU's #35.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UGA
UGA +60.0 per game over the last five, WKU −35.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
UGA
Consensus has UGA by 35.5; the model says UGA by 23.1.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: UGA by 23.1 · market UGA by 35.5
Western Kentucky HilltoppersGeorgia Bulldogs
1519 Elo · #72
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
UGA +20.1 pts
1880 Elo · #5
road
Home field
UGA +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−15.4 pts vs UGA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
UGA +24.9 pts
+9.6 pts vs WKU D
L · −35.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UGA +47.5 pts
W · +60.0
+1.6
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
UGA +22.5 pts
+24.1
WKU +35.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
UGA +35.5 pts
UGA -35.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸UGA defense (#1 rush explosiveness allowed) against a WKU offense ranked #93
- ▸WKU interception rate (#38) against a UGA defense ranked #119 at stopping it
- ▸UGA defense (#14 pass explosiveness allowed) against a WKU offense ranked #89
- ▸UGA defense (#8 yards / rush allowed) against a WKU offense ranked #83
- ▸UGA turnovers / game (#22) against a WKU defense ranked #96 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense vs Georgia Bulldogs defense
ranks of 135| WKU off | UGA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 57% | 54% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 65 | 54 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:36 | 26:19 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.24#74 | +0.23#61 | · |
| Pass success rate | 42%#63 | 41%#66 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.51#89 | 1.41#14 | UGA |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.1#69 | 6.6#46 | · |
| Completion % | 66%#32 | 61%#57 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.8%#38 | 1.5%#119 | WKU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.08#85 | −0.01#12 | UGA |
| Rush success rate | 45%#50 | 38%#16 | UGA |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.91#93 | 0.74#1 | UGA |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.99#61 | 2.53#12 | UGA |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#96 | 20%#48 | UGA |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 81%#12 | 71%#64 | WKU |
| Yards / rush | 4.2#83 | 3.0#8 | UGA |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.06#95 | +0.06#53 | UGA |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.36#45 | +0.17#19 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 46%#25 | 35%#36 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.21#30 | 3.67#68 | WKU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.1%#60 | 15.1%#79 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.62#113 | 0.93#108 | · |
Georgia Bulldogs offense vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers defense
ranks of 135| UGA off | WKU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 44% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 66% | · |
| Plays / game | 66 | 68 | · |
| Possession / game | 33:41 | 30:25 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.36#34 | +0.16#29 | · |
| Pass success rate | 48%#17 | 36%#17 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.39#125 | 1.54#60 | WKU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.4#61 | 6.3#23 | WKU |
| Completion % | 69%#10 | 55%#10 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.2%#58 | 2.8%#48 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.16#45 | +0.09#61 | · |
| Rush success rate | 47%#27 | 39%#28 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.92#85 | 1.13#129 | UGA |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.08#44 | 2.79#52 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#93 | 22%#30 | WKU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 75%#52 | 55%#2 | WKU |
| Yards / rush | 4.4#66 | 4.9#116 | UGA |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.22#20 | +0.05#39 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.35#51 | +0.23#42 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 43%#35 | 35%#35 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.79#7 | 2.72#10 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.4%#36 | 16.1%#59 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.93#22 | 1.08#96 | UGA |
Season
| WKU | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 14.0 | Points for / game | 63.0 |
| 49.0 | Points against / game | 3.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| WKU | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1519 | Elo | 1880 |
| #72 of 240 | Rank | #5 of 240 |
| −0.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +12.3 |
| +2.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +15.2 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1481 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| WKU | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| −7.3 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +26.4 |
| 0.162 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.261 |
| 0.108 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.096 |
| 43% / 37% | Success rate (off / def) | 48% / 39% |
| 1.24 / 1.34 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.15 / 1.13 |
| 612 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 1004 |
| 84% | Returning production | 69% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UGA +20.1 pts
- Home field
- UGA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UGA by 23.1
- Model total
- 51.2 vs 52.5
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- UGA -35.5
- Total
- 52.5
- Moneyline
- WKU +3458 · UGA -5088
| Book | UGA spread | Total | WKU ML | UGA ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -35.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-112/-108) | — | — |
Spreadopened UGA -35.5 · now UGA -35.5
Totalopened 52.5 · now 52.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.