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South Florida Bulls
1-0 · #30 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Michie Stadium · 69° · Mostly sunny
Army Black Knights
1-0 · #57 Elo
Spread ARMY -1.5Total 52.5Moneyline USF +100 · ARMY -1203 books · best USF +100 fanduel · ARMY -118 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
USF +100
55%
model margin USF by 2.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
USF +1.5
51%
3.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 52.5
52%
model total 47.4
The read
On rating alone South Florida Bulls are 5.4 points better (#30 vs #57 of 240), and ARMY add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: USF third-down conversion ranks #21, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into USF's #78. The model lands on USF by 2.3 against a market ARMY by 1.5, so the spread lean is USF by 3.8 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 47.4 against 52.5.
Who has the edge
Model: USF by 2.3 · market ARMY by 1.5
Rating
Clear edge
USF
USF rated 5.4 points better on Elo (#57 vs #30).
Home & rest
Clear edge
ARMY
ARMY gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Slight edge
USF
USF passing ranks #6, ARMY defends it at #88; the other way ARMY #7 into USF's #33.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
USF
USF rushing ranks #38, ARMY defends it at #68; the other way ARMY #50 into USF's #22.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
USF
USF third-down conversion ranks #21, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into USF's #78.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
ARMY
ARMY +56.0 per game over the last five, USF +10.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
ARMY
Consensus has ARMY by 1.5; the model says USF by 2.3.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: USF by 2.3 · market ARMY by 1.5
South Florida BullsArmy Black Knights
1671 Elo · #30
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
USF +5.4 pts
1574 Elo · #57
road
Home field
ARMY +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−5.2 pts vs ARMY D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ARMY +0.8 pts
−4.4 pts vs USF D
W · +10.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ARMY +23.0 pts
W · +56.0
+11.6
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
USF +10.8 pts
+0.8
USF +1.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
ARMY +1.5 pts
ARMY -1.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸USF stuff rate (#10) against a ARMY defense ranked #110 at stopping it
- ▸USF third-down conversion (#21) against a ARMY defense ranked #121 at stopping it
- ▸USF line yards / rush (#13) against a ARMY defense ranked #106 at stopping it
- ▸USF standard-down ppa (#6) against a ARMY defense ranked #99 at stopping it
- ▸ARMY power success (#26) against a USF defense ranked #119 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
South Florida Bulls offense vs Army Black Knights defense
ranks of 135| USF off | ARMY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 48% | 45% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 60 | 59 | · |
| Possession / game | 25:24 | 25:24 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.48#6 | +0.29#88 | USF |
| Pass success rate | 46%#28 | 45%#114 | USF |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.73#14 | 1.48#38 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.8#12 | 6.9#55 | USF |
| Completion % | 66%#24 | 64%#89 | USF |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.5%#101 | 1.4%#125 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.18#38 | +0.10#68 | USF |
| Rush success rate | 47%#26 | 45%#96 | USF |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.98#60 | 0.87#20 | ARMY |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.33#13 | 3.13#106 | USF |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 14%#10 | 16%#110 | USF |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 81%#9 | 75%#93 | USF |
| Yards / rush | 5.5#12 | 4.5#86 | USF |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.26#6 | +0.15#99 | USF |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.43#25 | +0.24#52 | USF |
| Third-down conversion | 46%#21 | 45%#121 | USF |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.45#17 | 3.76#75 | USF |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.8%#47 | 12.7%#120 | USF |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.54#104 | 1.23#75 | ARMY |
Army Black Knights offense vs South Florida Bulls defense
ranks of 135| ARMY off | USF def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 15% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 73% | 63% | · |
| Plays / game | 66 | 60 | · |
| Possession / game | 34:36 | 34:36 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.47#7 | +0.17#33 | · |
| Pass success rate | 38%#106 | 38%#37 | USF |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 2.41#1 | 1.55#66 | ARMY |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.3#21 | 6.5#37 | · |
| Completion % | 54%#131 | 61%#63 | USF |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 6.3%#133 | 2.3%#77 | USF |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.15#50 | +0.02#22 | USF |
| Rush success rate | 43%#77 | 38%#14 | USF |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.96#70 | 1.06#111 | ARMY |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.06#48 | 2.63#21 | USF |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 13%#6 | 23%#18 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 78%#26 | 79%#119 | ARMY |
| Yards / rush | 4.4#65 | 3.7#33 | USF |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.17#34 | −0.02#18 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.25#89 | +0.23#43 | USF |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#52 | 40%#78 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.70#66 | 3.15#28 | USF |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 8.3%#1 | 16.1%#58 | ARMY |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.85#10 | 1.92#10 | · |
Season
| USF | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 19.0 | Points for / game | 59.0 |
| 9.0 | Points against / game | 3.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| USF | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1671 | Elo | 1574 |
| #30 of 240 | Rank | #57 of 240 |
| +5.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +3.6 |
| +8.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +11.1 |
| 1368 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1421 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| USF | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.7 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −2.4 |
| 0.308 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.191 |
| 0.072 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.176 |
| 46% / 38% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 44% |
| 1.33 / 1.32 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.16 / 1.14 |
| 704 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 304 |
| 13% | Returning production | 80% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- USF +5.4 pts
- Home field
- ARMY +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- USF by 2.3
- Model total
- 47.4 vs 52.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- ARMY -1.5
- Total
- 52.5
- Moneyline
- USF +100 · ARMY -120
- Best price
- USF +100 fanduel · ARMY -118 draftkings
| Book | ARMY spread | Total | USF ML | ARMY ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | -102 | -118 |
| fanduel | — | — | +100 | -120 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +100 | -120 |
Spreadopened ARMY -1.5 · now ARMY -1.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.