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#19SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles
Mon, Sep 7, 7:30 PM ET · Doak Campbell Stadium · 76° · 83% precip · Intermittent clouds
SMU -3 · O/U 53.5
SMU -155 · FSU +130
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
SMU -155
70%
model margin SMU by 9.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
SMU -3
52%
6.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 53.5
51%
model total 49.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 1731 | 7.2 | 9.1 | — | 0 |
| Florida State Seminoles | 1507 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 1353 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- SMU +224 Elo
- Home field
- FSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- FSU +0.3 pts (7d vs 9d)
- Weather / roof
- -1.5 pts on the total
- Model margin
- SMU by 9.1
- Market spread
- SMU -3
- Model total
- 49.8 vs 53.5
- Moneyline
- SMU -155 · FSU +130
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.