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#24Louisville Cardinals vs #9Ole Miss Rebels
Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET · Nissan Stadium · 93° · 10 mph wind · Mostly sunny
MISS -6.5 · O/U 54.5
LOU +220 · MISS -270
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
MISS -270
68%
model margin MISS by 8.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
MISS -6.5
51%
1.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 54.5
51%
model total 58.5
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 1688 | 5.2 | 8.8 | — | 0 |
| Ole Miss Rebels | 1832 | 14.0 | 9.0 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MISS +145 Elo
- Home field
- Neutral site
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MISS by 8.0
- Market spread
- MISS -6.5
- Model total
- 58.5 vs 54.5
- Moneyline
- LOU +220 · MISS -270
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.