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Wisconsin Badgers vs #4Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET · Lambeau Field · 74° · Partly sunny
ND -20.5 · O/U 46.5
WIS +850 · ND -1450
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ND -1450
86%
model margin ND by 18.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
WIS +20.5
51%
1.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 46.5
51%
model total 44.6
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin Badgers | 1519 | -3.4 | 11.3 | — | 0 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1858 | 15.1 | 12.8 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ND +338 Elo
- Home field
- Neutral site
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ND by 18.8
- Market spread
- ND -20.5
- Model total
- 44.6 vs 46.5
- Moneyline
- WIS +850 · ND -1450
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.