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San José State Spartans at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Fri, Sep 4, 6:30 PM ET · Rynearson StadiumFINAL 27–21Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
EMU
71%
model margin EMU by 9.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
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model total 57.2
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José State Spartans | 1399 | -2.1 | -3.1 | 1577 | 2 |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles | 1408 | -3.3 | 0.5 | 1400 | 2 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- EMU +120 Elo
- Home field
- EMU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- EMU by 9.7
- Market spread
- —
- Model total
- 57.2 vs —
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.