The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Eastern Michigan EaglesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
EMU by 5.7market EMU by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.2 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Eastern Michigan Eagles at 63% to win, with the market at EMU by 1.5.
EMU has the advantage in rushing: EMU rushing ranks #101, SJSU defends it at #77; the other way SJSU #113 into EMU's #30.
Counterpoint: passing favours SJSU. SJSU passing ranks #72, EMU defends it at #108; the other way EMU #105 into SJSU's #53. The pick still lands on EMU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: EMU has the better last five games by 9.0 points a game (EMU +5.6, SJSU -3.4).
Home field is with EMU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it EMU by 5.7 against a market EMU by 1.5: 4.2 points of daylight in EMU's favour. The model's total is 57.2 against a line of 54.5: 2.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model EMU by 5.7 · market EMU by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SJSU
Clear advantage
SJSU passing ranks #72, EMU defends it at #108; the other way EMU #105 into SJSU's #53.
Rushing game
EMU
Slight advantage
EMU rushing ranks #101, SJSU defends it at #77; the other way SJSU #113 into EMU's #30.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
EMU third-down conversion ranks #84, SJSU defends it at #61; the other way SJSU #129 into EMU's #94.
Big plays
=
Even
SJSU pass explosiveness ranks #115, EMU defends it at #54; the other way EMU #116 into SJSU's #32.
Pass protection & rush
SJSU
Slight advantage
SJSU sack rate ranks #99, EMU defends it at #108; the other way EMU #51 into SJSU's #4.
Ball security
=
Even
EMU turnovers / game ranks #66, SJSU defends it at #85; the other way SJSU #51 into EMU's #67.
Form (last 5)
EMU
Clear advantage
EMU +5.6 per game over the last five, SJSU −3.4.
Market
EMU
Slight advantage
Consensus has EMU by 1.5; the model says EMU by 5.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket EMU by 1.5 · model EMU by 5.7
Mkt EMU 1.5
Model EMU 5.7
← SJSU by 28tieEMU by 28 →
9.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 57.2
Mkt 54.5
Model 57.2
24 pts6096 pts
7.1% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 57.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
