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Fresno State Bulldogs at #14USC Trojans
Fri, Sep 4, 9:00 PM ET · Los Angeles Memorial ColiseumFINAL 0–39Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
USC
69%
model margin USC by 8.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
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model total 50.7
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 1561 | -4.3 | 6.5 | 1699 | 1 |
| USC Trojans | 1735 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 1474 | 2 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- USC +102 Elo
- Home field
- USC +3.1 pts
- Rest
- FRES +0.2 pts (7d vs 6d)
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- USC by 8.5
- Market spread
- —
- Model total
- 50.7 vs —
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.