Probetrics — Sports Analytics
College Football slate
Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET · Bobby Dodd StadiumFINAL 1413Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.
GT
75%
model margin GT by 11.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.
No line
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.
No line
model total 54.6

Power ratings

TeamEloOffDefSOSGP
Colorado Buffaloes1455-2.43.915911
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets15691.86.814341

Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.

How the margin was built

Rating gap
GT +157 Elo
Home field
GT +3.1 pts
Rest
Even
Weather / roof
0.0 pts on the total
Model margin
GT by 11.8
Market spread
Model total
54.6 vs —
Moneyline

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.