The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
83%Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GT by 16.3market GT by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.6 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at 83% to win, with the market at GT by 6.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: GT has the better last five games by 19.8 points a game (GT -0.6, COLO -20.4).
Home field is with GT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GT by 16.3 against a market GT by 6.5: 9.8 points of daylight in GT's favour. The model's total is 54.6 against a line of 53.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GT by 16.3 · market GT by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor COLO, but the model still picks GT. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
COLO passing ranks #86, GT defends it at #125; the other way GT #66 into COLO's #93.
Rushing game
COLO
Slight advantage
COLO rushing ranks #129, GT defends it at #122; the other way GT #62 into COLO's #24.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
COLO third-down conversion ranks #98, GT defends it at #116; the other way GT #112 into COLO's #89.
Big plays
COLO
Slight advantage
COLO pass explosiveness ranks #35, GT defends it at #137; the other way GT #94 into COLO's #128.
Pass protection & rush
COLO
Slight advantage
COLO sack rate ranks #78, GT defends it at #78; the other way GT #94 into COLO's #66.
Ball security
GT
Slight advantage
GT turnovers / game ranks #73, COLO defends it at #98; the other way COLO #137 into GT's #137.
Form (last 5)
GT
Clear advantage
GT −0.6 per game over the last five, COLO −20.4.
Market
GT
Clear advantage
Consensus has GT by 6.5; the model says GT by 16.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket GT by 6.5 · model GT by 16.3
Mkt GT 6.5
Model GT 16.3
← COLO by 28tieGT by 28 →
16.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 54.6
Mkt 53.5
Model 54.6
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 54.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
