← College Football slate
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at #25Missouri Tigers
Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET · Memorial StadiumFINAL 14–54Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
MIZ
81%
model margin MIZ by 15.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 49.9
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions | 1388 | -5.4 | -9.8 | 1631 | 1 |
| Missouri Tigers | 1651 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 1409 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MIZ +222 Elo
- Home field
- MIZ +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MIZ by 15.4
- Market spread
- —
- Model total
- 49.9 vs —
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.