The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
87%Missouri TigersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIZ by 19.3market MIZ by 55.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.9 pointsmarket 62.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Missouri Tigers at 87% to win, with the market at MIZ by 55.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: MIZ has the better last five games by 44.8 points a game (MIZ +4.8, UAPB -40.0).
Home field is with MIZ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIZ by 19.3 against a market MIZ by 55.5: 36.2 points of daylight in UAPB's favour. The model's total is 49.9 against a line of 62.5: 12.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIZ by 19.3 · market MIZ by 55.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ +4.8 per game over the last five, UAPB −40.0.
Market
MIZ
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIZ by 55.5; the model says MIZ by 19.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIZ by 55.5 · model MIZ by 19.3
Mkt MIZ 55.5
Model MIZ 19.3
← UAPB by 28tieMIZ by 28 →
28.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 62.5 · model 49.9
Mkt 62.5
Model 49.9
24 pts6096 pts
29.2% of FBS games finish between 62.5 and 49.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
