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New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles
Sat, Aug 29, 7:00 PM ET · Doak Campbell StadiumFINAL 17–34Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
FSU
72%
model margin FSU by 10.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 50.2
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State Aggies | 1329 | -4.9 | -2.2 | 1483 | 1 |
| Florida State Seminoles | 1507 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 1353 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- FSU +129 Elo
- Home field
- FSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- FSU by 10.2
- Market spread
- —
- Model total
- 50.2 vs —
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.