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Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Stanford Cardinal
Sat, Aug 29, 7:00 PM ET · Stanford StadiumFINAL 27–37Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
HAW
59%
model margin HAW by 3.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
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model total 51.9
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 1545 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1473 | 1 |
| Stanford Cardinal | 1507 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 1729 | 2 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- HAW +125 Elo
- Home field
- STAN +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- HAW by 3.9
- Market spread
- —
- Model total
- 51.9 vs —
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.