The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HAW by 0.5market STAN by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.9 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at 51% to win, with the market at STAN by 4.5.
HAW has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: HAW third-down conversion ranks #80, STAN defends it at #132; the other way STAN #111 into HAW's #68.
Form: HAW has the better last five games by 10.6 points a game (STAN -13.6, HAW -3.0).
Home field is with STAN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it HAW by 0.5 against a market STAN by 4.5: 5.0 points of daylight in HAW's favour. The model's total is 51.9 against a line of 48.5: 3.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HAW by 0.5 · market STAN by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
STAN
Slight advantage
STAN passing ranks #49, HAW defends it at #91; the other way HAW #104 into STAN's #117.
Rushing game
=
Even
HAW rushing ranks #106, STAN defends it at #135; the other way STAN #96 into HAW's #103.
Third down & red zone
HAW
Slight advantage
HAW third-down conversion ranks #80, STAN defends it at #132; the other way STAN #111 into HAW's #68.
Big plays
=
Even
STAN pass explosiveness ranks #68, HAW defends it at #57; the other way HAW #127 into STAN's #51.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
HAW sack rate ranks #45, STAN defends it at #131; the other way STAN #41 into HAW's #112.
Ball security
=
Even
HAW turnovers / game ranks #55, STAN defends it at #105; the other way STAN #23 into HAW's #51.
Form (last 5)
HAW
Clear advantage
STAN −13.6 per game over the last five, HAW −3.0.
Market
STAN
Clear advantage
Consensus has STAN by 4.5; the model says HAW by 0.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket STAN by 4.5 · model HAW by 0.5
Mkt STAN 4.5
Model HAW 0.5
← HAW by 28tieSTAN by 28 →
10.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 51.9
Mkt 48.5
Model 51.9
24 pts6096 pts
7.4% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 51.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
