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UNLV Rebels at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 82° · 12 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
UNLV -3 · O/U 55.5
UNLV -155 · HAW +130
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
HAW +130
54%
model margin HAW by 1.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
HAW +3
52%
4.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 55.5
51%
model total 57.5
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV Rebels | 1566 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1549 | 1 |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 1545 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1473 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UNLV +21 Elo
- Home field
- HAW +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- HAW by 1.9
- Market spread
- UNLV -3
- Model total
- 57.5 vs 55.5
- Moneyline
- UNLV -155 · HAW +130
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.