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Florida Atlantic Owls at Florida Gators
Sat, Sep 5, 7:45 PM ET · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 80° · Intermittent clouds
FLA -26.5 · O/U 59.5
FAU +1300 · FLA -2800
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
FLA -2800
72%
model margin FLA by 10.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
FAU +26.5
56%
16.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 59.5
51%
model total 56.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic Owls | 1422 | 0.9 | -4.2 | — | 0 |
| Florida Gators | 1552 | 2.6 | 7.8 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- FLA +130 Elo
- Home field
- FLA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- FLA by 10.3
- Market spread
- FLA -26.5
- Model total
- 56.8 vs 59.5
- Moneyline
- FAU +1300 · FLA -2800
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.