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UL Monroe Warhawks at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET · Davis Wade Stadium · 98° · Intermittent clouds
MSST -28.5 · O/U 54.5
ULM +1600 · MSST -4000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
MSST -4000
74%
model margin MSST by 11.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ULM +28.5
56%
17.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 54.5
51%
model total 56.9
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL Monroe Warhawks | 1321 | -8.2 | -1.7 | — | 0 |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 1467 | 5.9 | -0.4 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MSST +145 Elo
- Home field
- MSST +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MSST by 11.1
- Market spread
- MSST -28.5
- Model total
- 56.9 vs 54.5
- Moneyline
- ULM +1600 · MSST -4000
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.