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Western Michigan Broncos at #16Michigan Wolverines
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET · Michigan Stadium · 73° · Sunny
MICH -27.5 · O/U 49.5
WMU +2000 · MICH -6500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
MICH -6500
57%
model margin MICH by 3.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
WMU +27.5
58%
24.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 49.5
51%
model total 46.9
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan Broncos | 1669 | 1.2 | 8.7 | — | 0 |
| Michigan Wolverines | 1673 | 5.1 | 7.7 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MICH +4 Elo
- Home field
- MICH +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MICH by 3.3
- Market spread
- MICH -27.5
- Model total
- 46.9 vs 49.5
- Moneyline
- WMU +2000 · MICH -6500
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.