← College Football slate
Clemson Tigers at #11LSU Tigers
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 84° · Mostly cloudy
LSU -10 · O/U 50.5
CLEM +300 · LSU -380
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
LSU -380
52%
model margin LSU by 1.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
CLEM +10
53%
8.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 50.5
52%
model total 44.7
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson Tigers | 1646 | 4.3 | 10.6 | — | 0 |
| LSU Tigers | 1610 | 2.4 | 8.4 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CLEM +36 Elo
- Home field
- LSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- LSU by 1.1
- Market spread
- LSU -10
- Model total
- 44.7 vs 50.5
- Moneyline
- CLEM +300 · LSU -380
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.