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Sam Houston Bearkats at Troy Trojans
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 68° · Cloudy
TROY -16.5 · O/U 52.5
SHSU +575 · TROY -850
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TROY -850
81%
model margin TROY by 15.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
SHSU +16.5
50%
0.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 52.5
52%
model total 47.4
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston Bearkats | 1305 | -7.7 | -6.5 | — | 0 |
| Troy Trojans | 1531 | -3.9 | 4.5 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TROY +226 Elo
- Home field
- TROY +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TROY by 15.6
- Market spread
- TROY -16.5
- Model total
- 47.4 vs 52.5
- Moneyline
- SHSU +575 · TROY -850
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.