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Arkansas State Red Wolves at Memphis Tigers
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 101° · Intermittent clouds
MEM -10.5 · O/U 52.5
ARST +330 · MEM -425
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
MEM -425
65%
model margin MEM by 6.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ARST +10.5
51%
3.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 52.5
51%
model total 50.4
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 1529 | -1.0 | 1.4 | — | 0 |
| Memphis Tigers | 1598 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 1615 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MEM +69 Elo
- Home field
- MEM +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MEM by 6.9
- Market spread
- MEM -10.5
- Model total
- 50.4 vs 52.5
- Moneyline
- ARST +330 · MEM -425
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.