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Idaho State Bengals at Utah State Aggies
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Maverik Stadium · 86° · 15 mph wind · Mostly sunny
USU -15.5 · O/U 59.5
IDST +470 · USU -650
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
USU -650
68%
model margin USU by 8.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
IDST +15.5
53%
7.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 59.5
51%
model total 61.1
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho State Bengals | 1415 | -0.9 | -3.4 | — | 0 |
| Utah State Aggies | 1506 | 3.7 | 1.1 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- USU +91 Elo
- Home field
- USU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -1.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- USU by 8.1
- Market spread
- USU -15.5
- Model total
- 61.1 vs 59.5
- Moneyline
- IDST +470 · USU -650
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.