Idaho State vs Utah State Prediction — College Football Week 1, Sep 5, 2026

No winner call was locked for Idaho State vs Utah State before kickoff.

Idaho State Bengals

1-0

Modelpredicted

28 – 34

Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET

Maverik Stadium · 79° · 13 mph wind

Final

Utah State Aggies

1-4

MarketSpread USU -15.5 (opened USU -11.5)Total 59.5Moneyline IDST +470 · USU -65014 books

Save image Square

The pick

locked before kickoff

Win chance

64%Utah State AggiesSolid

No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.

Model margin

USU by 6.0market USU by 15.5

Model total

62.0 pointsmarket 59.5

Why the model calls it

The model has Utah State Aggies at 64% to win, with the market at USU by 15.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: IDST has the better last five games by 23.0 points a game (USU -11.0, IDST +12.0).
Home field is with USU, which supports the pick.

ContextThe model makes it USU by 6.0 against a market USU by 15.5: 9.5 points of daylight in IDST's favour. The model's total is 62.0 against a line of 59.5: 2.5 points above it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model USU by 6.0 · market USU by 15.5

ⓘMost of these areas favor IDST, but the model still picks USU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.

Passing game

—

not priced

Ranks unavailable.

Rushing game

—

not priced

Ranks unavailable.

Third down & red zone

—

not priced

Ranks unavailable.

Big plays

—

not priced

Ranks unavailable.

Pass protection & rush

—

not priced

Ranks unavailable.

Ball security

—

not priced

Ranks unavailable.

Form (last 5)

IDST

Clear advantage

USU −11.0 per game over the last five, IDST +12.0.

Market

USU

Clear advantage

Consensus has USU by 15.5; the model says USU by 6.0.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,154 FBS games since 2023

Marginmarket USU by 15.5 · model USU by 6.0

Mkt USU 15.5

Model USU 6.0

← IDST by 28tieUSU by 28 →

16.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 59.5 · model 62.0

Mkt 59.5

Model 62.0

24 pts6096 pts

2.9% of FBS games finish between 59.5 and 62.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Idaho State vs Utah State Prediction — College Football Week 1, Sep 5, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Idaho State vs Utah State Prediction — College Football Week 1, Sep 5, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit