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Missouri State Bears at #8Texas A&M Aggies
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Kyle Field · 79° · 10 mph wind · Partly sunny
TA&M -40.5 · O/U 53.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TA&M
86%
model margin TA&M by 18.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MOST +40.5
57%
21.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 53.5
51%
model total 56.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State Bears | 1453 | 0.4 | -2.5 | — | 0 |
| Texas A&M Aggies | 1734 | 8.0 | 11.0 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TA&M +280 Elo
- Home field
- TA&M +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TA&M by 18.6
- Market spread
- TA&M -40.5
- Model total
- 56.8 vs 53.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.