The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
73%UTSA RoadrunnersStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UTSA by 10.5market UTSA by 28.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
64.0 pointsmarket 59.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UTSA Roadrunners at 73% to win, with the market at UTSA by 28.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: UTSA has the better last five games by 34.2 points a game (UTSA +5.2, RGV -29.0).
Home field is with UTSA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UTSA by 10.5 against a market UTSA by 28.5: 18.0 points of daylight in RGV's favour. The model's total is 64.0 against a line of 59.5: 4.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UTSA by 10.5 · market UTSA by 28.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA +5.2 per game over the last five, RGV −29.0.
Market
UTSA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UTSA by 28.5; the model says UTSA by 10.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTSA by 28.5 · model UTSA by 10.5
Mkt UTSA 28.5
Model UTSA 10.5
← RGV by 28tieUTSA by 28 →
23.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 59.5 · model 64.0
Mkt 59.5
Model 64.0
24 pts6096 pts
8.6% of FBS games finish between 59.5 and 64.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
