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Boston College Eagles at Cincinnati Bearcats
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Nippert Stadium · 91° · Partly sunny
CIN -7 · O/U 51.5
BC +225 · CIN -278
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
CIN -278
66%
model margin CIN by 7.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
CIN -7
50%
0.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 51.5
52%
model total 56.3
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 1447 | 1.5 | 1.7 | — | 0 |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 1525 | 2.1 | 2.7 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CIN +78 Elo
- Home field
- CIN +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- CIN by 7.4
- Market spread
- CIN -7
- Model total
- 56.3 vs 51.5
- Moneyline
- BC +225 · CIN -278
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.