The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
66%Cincinnati BearcatsSolid✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 7.4market CIN by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.3 pointsmarket 51.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bearcats at 66% to win, with the market at CIN by 7.
CIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CIN third-down conversion ranks #30, BC defends it at #91; the other way BC #121 into CIN's #120.
CIN has the advantage in big plays: CIN rush explosiveness ranks #5, BC defends it at #112; the other way BC #53 into CIN's #49.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours BC. BC sack rate ranks #107, CIN defends it at #114; the other way CIN #73 into BC's #37. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 15.0 points a game (CIN +10.6, BC -4.4).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 7.4 against a market CIN by 7: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 56.3 against a line of 51.5: 4.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 7.4 · market CIN by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
CIN passing ranks #53, BC defends it at #65; the other way BC #110 into CIN's #101.
Rushing game
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN rushing ranks #16, BC defends it at #46; the other way BC #105 into CIN's #110.
Third down & red zone
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN third-down conversion ranks #30, BC defends it at #91; the other way BC #121 into CIN's #120.
Big plays
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN rush explosiveness ranks #5, BC defends it at #112; the other way BC #53 into CIN's #49.
Pass protection & rush
BC
Slight advantage
BC sack rate ranks #107, CIN defends it at #114; the other way CIN #73 into BC's #37.
Ball security
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #7, BC defends it at #31; the other way BC #98 into CIN's #59.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN +10.6 per game over the last five, BC −4.4.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 7; the model says CIN by 7.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CIN by 7 · model CIN by 7.4
Mkt CIN 7
Model CIN 7.4
← BC by 28tieCIN by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 7, a number 7.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 56.3
Mkt 51.5
Model 56.3
24 pts6096 pts
10.9% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 56.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
