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Baylor Bears vs Auburn Tigers
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Indoors
AUB -7 · O/U 57.5
BAY +220 · AUB -270
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
AUB -270
54%
model margin AUB by 1.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
BAY +7
52%
5.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 57.5
50%
model total 58.3
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor Bears | 1511 | 5.6 | 0.5 | — | 0 |
| Auburn Tigers | 1544 | 5.0 | 9.3 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- AUB +32 Elo
- Home field
- Neutral site
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- AUB by 1.8
- Market spread
- AUB -7
- Model total
- 58.3 vs 57.5
- Moneyline
- BAY +220 · AUB -270
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.