← College Football slate
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Iowa State Cyclones
Sat, Sep 5, 1:00 PM ET · Jack Trice Stadium · 83°
ISU -29.5 · O/U 52.5
SEMO +2500 · ISU -9000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ISU -9000
78%
model margin ISU by 13.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
SEMO +29.5
55%
16.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 52.5
51%
model total 51.0
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | 1442 | -3.0 | -1.9 | — | 0 |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 1629 | 2.5 | 7.4 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ISU +187 Elo
- Home field
- ISU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ISU by 13.5
- Market spread
- ISU -29.5
- Model total
- 51.0 vs 52.5
- Moneyline
- SEMO +2500 · ISU -9000
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.