The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
78%Iowa State CyclonesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ISU by 13.5market ISU by 29.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.0 pointsmarket 52.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Iowa State Cyclones at 78% to win, with the market at ISU by 29.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: ISU has the better last five games by 40.4 points a game (ISU +12.4, SEMO -28.0).
Home field is with ISU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ISU by 13.5 against a market ISU by 29.5: 16.0 points of daylight in SEMO's favour. The model's total is 51.0 against a line of 52.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ISU by 13.5 · market ISU by 29.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
ISU
Clear advantage
ISU +12.4 per game over the last five, SEMO −28.0.
Market
ISU
Clear advantage
Consensus has ISU by 29.5; the model says ISU by 13.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ISU by 29.5 · model ISU by 13.5
Mkt ISU 29.5
Model ISU 13.5
← SEMO by 28tieISU by 28 →
21.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 51.0
Mkt 52.5
Model 51.0
24 pts6096 pts
2.5% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 51.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
