"Fair" is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; "book" is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Yoo a solid 61% favorite. Aswell throws more on the feet (6.9 vs 4.8/min), but the model expects Yoo to bank rounds with grappling — 1.0 takedowns and 0.2 positional advances per 15 minutes. Yoo is most dangerous early — 4 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Yoo's most likely path is on the scorecards (42%), and the fight goes the distance 55% of the time. The live danger for Yoo: 55% of Aswell's wins come by knockout and 100% of Yoo's losses have come the same way.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,500+ UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 204 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Probabilities are discounted in boom-or-bust matchups (both fighters' bouts ending fast) and squeezed toward the betting market's implied odds where a line exists — divergence beyond 10 points counts half. Experimental — size responsibly.