"Fair" is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; "book" is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Morales a narrow 57% favorite. Moreno throws more (4.2 vs 2.6/min), but the model sees Morales edging rounds on effectiveness — absorbing 3.1/min to Moreno's 4.0. Morales's most likely path is on the scorecards (40%), and the fight goes the distance 80% of the time.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,500+ UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 204 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Probabilities are discounted in boom-or-bust matchups (both fighters' bouts ending fast) and squeezed toward the betting market's implied odds where a line exists — divergence beyond 10 points counts half. Experimental — size responsibly.