Books price Royval at 34% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +9.3% on RoyvalEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
The model makes Kavanagh a narrow 57% favorite, cooler than the market's 66% — the value sits with Royval. Royval throws more (5.8 vs 2.1/min), but the model sees Kavanagh edging rounds on effectiveness — landing at 49% to Royval's 41%. Kavanagh's most likely path is on the scorecards (35%), and the fight goes the distance 51% of the time.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,523 UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 192 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | L. Kavanagh to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | B. Royval to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -225 | +185 | — | — / — |
| BetOnline | -221 | +186 | 2.5 | -175 / +153 |
| BetRivers | -230 | +180 | — | — / — |
| Bovada | -220 | +185 | 2.5 | -185 / +140 |
| DraftKings | -218 | +180 | 2.5 | -175 / +135 |
| FanDuel | -215 | +180 | — | — / — |
| Caesars | -220 | +180 | — | — / — |
