Books price Riley at 67% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +0.8% on KamakaEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
The model makes Riley a solid 66% favorite, in line with the betting market. Striking volume is near even (1.1 vs 0.6 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Kamaka tends to settle in for the long haul — 8 of 11 tracked fights reached the judges. Riley's most likely path is by KO/TKO (35%), and the fight goes the distance 52% of the time.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,523 UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 192 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | K. Kamaka to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | L. Riley to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +190 | -235 | — | — / — |
| BetOnline | +190 | -225 | 2.5 | -195 / +170 |
| BetRivers | +180 | -230 | — | — / — |
| Bovada | +185 | -225 | 2.5 | -220 / +165 |
| DraftKings | +185 | -225 | 2.5 | -215 / +165 |
| FanDuel | +190 | -230 | — | — / — |
| Caesars | +180 | -220 | — | — / — |
