Books price Durden at 33% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +2.9% on DurdenEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
The model makes Costa a solid 64% favorite, in line with the betting market. Expect Durden to chase the takedown (3.9/15 min at 54%) while Costa tries to keep it standing behind 86% takedown defense. Costa's most likely path is by submission (27%), and the fight goes the distance 34% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,523 UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 192 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | A. Costa to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | C. Durden to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -235 | +190 | — | — / — |
| BetOnline | -218 | +188 | 1.5 | -215 / +183 |
| BetRivers | -235 | +185 | — | — / — |
| Bovada | -230 | +190 | 2.5 | -105 / -125 |
| DraftKings | -225 | +185 | 1.5 | -210 / +160 |
| FanDuel | -230 | +190 | — | — / — |
| Caesars | -230 | +190 | — | — / — |
