The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
70%Buffalo BullsStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Buffalo Bulls 84%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUFF by 17.3market BUFF by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.4 pointsmarket 43.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bulls at 70% to win, with the market at BUFF by 6.5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours MASS. MASS turnovers / game ranks #25, BUFF defends it at #82; the other way BUFF #105 into MASS's #25. The pick still lands on BUFF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BUFF has the better last five games by 10.2 points a game (BUFF +5.8, MASS -4.4).
Home field is with BUFF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUFF by 17.3 against a market BUFF by 6.5: 10.8 points of daylight in BUFF's favour. The model's total is 45.4 against a line of 43.5: 1.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUFF by 17.3 · market BUFF by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor MASS, but the model still picks BUFF. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
MASS
Clear advantage
MASS passing ranks #62, BUFF defends it at #88; the other way BUFF #119 into MASS's #32.
Rushing game
=
Even
MASS rushing ranks #65, BUFF defends it at #54; the other way BUFF #91 into MASS's #56.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MASS points / scoring opportunity ranks #66, BUFF defends it at #65; the other way BUFF #93 into MASS's #21.
Big plays
MASS
Slight advantage
MASS pass explosiveness ranks #82, BUFF defends it at #107; the other way BUFF #99 into MASS's #69.
Pass protection & rush
MASS
Clear advantage
MASS sack rate ranks #58, BUFF defends it at #123; the other way BUFF #57 into MASS's #25.
Ball security
MASS
Clear advantage
MASS turnovers / game ranks #25, BUFF defends it at #82; the other way BUFF #105 into MASS's #25.
Form (last 5)
BUFF
Clear advantage
BUFF +5.8 per game over the last five, MASS −4.4.
Market
BUFF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUFF by 6.5; the model says BUFF by 17.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BUFF by 6.5 · model BUFF by 17.3
Mkt BUFF 6.5
Model BUFF 17.3
← MASS by 28tieBUFF by 28 →
18.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 45.4
Mkt 43.5
Model 45.4
24 pts6096 pts
5.6% of FBS games finish between 43.5 and 45.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: BUFFModel agrees
Opened
BUFF -3.5
→
Market maker now
BUFF -6.25
▲ 3 since open
→
Retail now
BUFF -6.5
in line
42 moves8 books4 ledSteam Thu, Oct 15, 7:49 PM
Mon, Oct 12, 1:49 PM first sharp move: BUFF -3.5 → BUFF -6.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still BUFF -4 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
45
→
Market maker now
43
▼ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
43.3
in line
29 moves8 books6 ledSteam Thu, Oct 15, 7:49 PM
Sun, Oct 11, 7:49 PM first sharp move: 45 → 43.5
No books followed within six hours
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
