The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
67%UTSA RoadrunnersSolid✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: UTSA Roadrunners 75%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UTSA by 11.5market UTSA by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.1 pointsmarket 52.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UTSA Roadrunners at 67% to win, with the market at UTSA by 5.5.
UTSA has the advantage in passing: UTSA passing ranks #80, NAVY defends it at #128; the other way NAVY #71 into UTSA's #69.
UTSA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UTSA third-down conversion ranks #52, NAVY defends it at #121; the other way NAVY #46 into UTSA's #75.
Counterpoint: big plays favours NAVY. NAVY pass explosiveness ranks #1, UTSA defends it at #78; the other way UTSA #114 into NAVY's #133. The pick still lands on UTSA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: UTSA has 2 more days since its last game (UTSA 9d, NAVY 7d).
Form: UTSA has the better last five games by 13.0 points a game (UTSA +10.0, NAVY -3.0).
Home field is with UTSA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UTSA by 11.5 against a market UTSA by 5.5: 6.0 points of daylight in UTSA's favour. The model's total is 54.1 against a line of 52.5: 1.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UTSA by 11.5 · market UTSA by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA passing ranks #80, NAVY defends it at #128; the other way NAVY #71 into UTSA's #69.
Rushing game
NAVY
Slight advantage
NAVY rushing ranks #15, UTSA defends it at #100; the other way UTSA #16 into NAVY's #60.
Third down & red zone
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA third-down conversion ranks #52, NAVY defends it at #121; the other way NAVY #46 into UTSA's #75.
Big plays
NAVY
Slight advantage
NAVY pass explosiveness ranks #1, UTSA defends it at #78; the other way UTSA #114 into NAVY's #133.
Pass protection & rush
NAVY
Slight advantage
NAVY sack rate ranks #114, UTSA defends it at #124; the other way UTSA #38 into NAVY's #20.
Ball security
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA turnovers / game ranks #27, NAVY defends it at #133; the other way NAVY #98 into UTSA's #26.
Form (last 5)
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA +10.0 per game over the last five, NAVY −3.0.
Market
UTSA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UTSA by 5.5; the model says UTSA by 11.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTSA by 5.5 · model UTSA by 11.5
Mkt UTSA 5.5
Model UTSA 11.5
← NAVY by 28tieUTSA by 28 →
11.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 54.1
Mkt 52.5
Model 54.1
24 pts6096 pts
3.4% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 54.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: NAVYModel disagrees
Opened
UTSA -6.5
→
Market maker now
UTSA -5.75
▼ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
UTSA -5.5
in line
20 moves8 books5 ledSteam Sat, Oct 17, 6:30 PM
Sat, Oct 17, 6:30 PM first sharp move: UTSA -6.5 → UTSA -6
7 books followed within six hours
Retail was still UTSA -6.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
55
→
Market maker now
53.8
▼ 1.8 since open
→
Retail now
53.5
in line
26 moves8 books1 led
Mon, Oct 12, 7:49 PM first sharp move: 55 → 56
5 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 55 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
