The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
72%Northwestern WildcatsStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Northwestern Wildcats 74%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NU by 11.0market NU by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.6 pointsmarket 50.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Northwestern Wildcats at 72% to win, with the market at NU by 7.5.
NU has the advantage in passing: NU passing ranks #9, MSU defends it at #96; the other way MSU #119 into NU's #23.
NU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NU points / scoring opportunity ranks #14, MSU defends it at #76; the other way MSU #108 into NU's #11.
Form: NU has the better last five games by 29.0 points a game (MSU -13.6, NU +15.4).
Home field is with MSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it NU by 11.0 against a market NU by 7.5: 3.5 points of daylight in NU's favour. The model's total is 49.6 against a line of 50.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NU by 11.0 · market NU by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NU
Clear advantage
NU passing ranks #9, MSU defends it at #96; the other way MSU #119 into NU's #23.
Rushing game
NU
Clear advantage
NU rushing ranks #11, MSU defends it at #72; the other way MSU #125 into NU's #71.
Third down & red zone
NU
Clear advantage
NU points / scoring opportunity ranks #14, MSU defends it at #76; the other way MSU #108 into NU's #11.
Big plays
NU
Clear advantage
NU pass explosiveness ranks #51, MSU defends it at #100; the other way MSU #123 into NU's #18.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
MSU sack rate ranks #124, NU defends it at #110; the other way NU #117 into MSU's #90.
Ball security
NU
Clear advantage
NU turnovers / game ranks #3, MSU defends it at #127; the other way MSU #82 into NU's #20.
Form (last 5)
NU
Clear advantage
MSU −13.6 per game over the last five, NU +15.4.
Market
NU
Clear advantage
Consensus has NU by 7.5; the model says NU by 11.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,332 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NU by 7.5 · model NU by 11.0
Mkt NU 7.5
Model NU 11.0
← NU by 28tieMSU by 28 →
3.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 49.6
Mkt 50.5
Model 49.6
24 pts6096 pts
1.5% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 49.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: MSUModel disagrees
Opened
NU -9.5
→
Market maker now
NU -7.25
▲ 1.3 since open
→
Retail now
NU -7.5
in line
25 moves8 books4 ledSteam Thu, Oct 15, 4:49 PM
Sun, Oct 11, 10:10 PM first sharp move: NU -9.5 → NU -7.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still NU -9.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
48.5
→
Market maker now
50.3
▲ 1.5 since open
→
Retail now
49.8
0.5 behind
30 moves8 books9 ledSteam Sat, Oct 17, 9:00 AM
Fri, Oct 16, 10:11 AM first sharp move: 49 → 50
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 49.3 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
