The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
63%Baylor BearsSolid✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Baylor Bears 70%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAY by 9.2market BAY by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.2 pointsmarket 50.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baylor Bears at 63% to win, with the market at BAY by 3.5.
BAY has the advantage in big plays: BAY pass explosiveness ranks #9, TCU defends it at #52; the other way TCU #34 into BAY's #19.
Home field is with BAY, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAY by 9.2 against a market BAY by 3.5: 5.7 points of daylight in BAY's favour. The model's total is 45.2 against a line of 50.5: 5.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAY by 9.2 · market BAY by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TCU
Slight advantage
TCU passing ranks #57, BAY defends it at #18; the other way BAY #85 into TCU's #19.
Rushing game
=
Even
BAY rushing ranks #110, TCU defends it at #8; the other way TCU #130 into BAY's #10.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BAY points / scoring opportunity ranks #106, TCU defends it at #63; the other way TCU #117 into BAY's #6.
Big plays
BAY
Slight advantage
BAY pass explosiveness ranks #9, TCU defends it at #52; the other way TCU #34 into BAY's #19.
Pass protection & rush
BAY
Clear advantage
BAY sack rate ranks #54, TCU defends it at #24; the other way TCU #104 into BAY's #6.
Ball security
BAY
Slight advantage
BAY turnovers / game ranks #112, TCU defends it at #59; the other way TCU #122 into BAY's #15.
Form (last 5)
BAY
Clear advantage
BAY +10.2 per game over the last five, TCU +3.2.
Market
BAY
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAY by 3.5; the model says BAY by 9.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BAY by 3.5 · model BAY by 9.2
Mkt BAY 3.5
Model BAY 9.2
← TCU by 28tieBAY by 28 →
11.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 45.2
Mkt 50.5
Model 45.2
24 pts6096 pts
10.2% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 45.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: TCUModel disagrees
Opened
BAY -6.5
→
Market maker now
BAY -4
▼ 2.3 since open
→
Retail now
BAY -4
in line
38 moves8 books9 ledSteam Sat, Oct 17, 1:10 PM
Sun, Oct 11, 10:10 PM first sharp move: BAY -6.5 → BAY -6
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still BAY -6.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
52.5
→
Market maker now
50.5
▲ 2.3 since open
→
Retail now
50.5
in line
50 moves8 books9 led
Sun, Oct 11, 10:10 PM first sharp move: 49 → 50
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 52.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
