The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Toledo RocketsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TOL by 5.1market MSU by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.7 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Toledo Rockets at 62% to win, with the market at MSU by 10.
TOL has the advantage in passing: TOL passing ranks #22, MSU defends it at #95; the other way MSU #120 into TOL's #47.
TOL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TOL third-down conversion ranks #37, MSU defends it at #102; the other way MSU #88 into TOL's #44.
Form: TOL has the better last five games by 24.0 points a game (MSU -13.6, TOL +10.4).
Home field is with MSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TOL by 5.1 against a market MSU by 10: 15.1 points of daylight in TOL's favour. The model's total is 49.7 against a line of 48.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TOL by 5.1 · market MSU by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL passing ranks #22, MSU defends it at #95; the other way MSU #120 into TOL's #47.
Rushing game
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL rushing ranks #87, MSU defends it at #73; the other way MSU #125 into TOL's #29.
Third down & red zone
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL third-down conversion ranks #37, MSU defends it at #102; the other way MSU #88 into TOL's #44.
Big plays
=
Even
TOL pass explosiveness ranks #32, MSU defends it at #100; the other way MSU #123 into TOL's #99.
Pass protection & rush
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL sack rate ranks #4, MSU defends it at #90; the other way MSU #124 into TOL's #61.
Ball security
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL turnovers / game ranks #67, MSU defends it at #127; the other way MSU #83 into TOL's #48.
Form (last 5)
TOL
Clear advantage
MSU −13.6 per game over the last five, TOL +10.4.
Market
MSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has MSU by 10; the model says TOL by 5.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MSU by 10 · model TOL by 5.1
Mkt MSU 10
Model TOL 5.1
← TOL by 28tieMSU by 28 →
29.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 49.7
Mkt 48.5
Model 49.7
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 49.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
