The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%TCU Horned FrogsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TCU by 12.8market TCU by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.4 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has TCU Horned Frogs at 77% to win, with the market at TCU by 7.5.
TCU has the advantage in passing: TCU passing ranks #57, UNC defends it at #42; the other way UNC #73 into TCU's #19.
TCU has the advantage in big plays: TCU pass explosiveness ranks #34, UNC defends it at #11; the other way UNC #120 into TCU's #52.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it TCU by 12.8 against a market TCU by 7.5: 5.3 points of daylight in TCU's favour. The model's total is 49.4 against a line of 46.5: 2.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TCU by 12.8 · market TCU by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TCU
Slight advantage
TCU passing ranks #57, UNC defends it at #42; the other way UNC #73 into TCU's #19.
Rushing game
=
Even
TCU rushing ranks #130, UNC defends it at #62; the other way UNC #98 into TCU's #8.
Third down & red zone
TCU
Slight advantage
TCU third-down conversion ranks #40, UNC defends it at #114; the other way UNC #68 into TCU's #15.
Big plays
TCU
Slight advantage
TCU pass explosiveness ranks #34, UNC defends it at #11; the other way UNC #120 into TCU's #52.
Pass protection & rush
TCU
Slight advantage
TCU sack rate ranks #104, UNC defends it at #83; the other way UNC #96 into TCU's #24.
Ball security
=
Even
UNC turnovers / game ranks #100, TCU defends it at #59; the other way TCU #122 into UNC's #75.
Form (last 5)
TCU
Slight advantage
TCU +3.2 per game over the last five, UNC −2.4.
Market
TCU
Clear advantage
Consensus has TCU by 7.5; the model says TCU by 12.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TCU by 7.5 · model TCU by 12.8
Mkt TCU 7.5
Model TCU 12.8
← UNC by 28tieTCU by 28 →
6.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 49.4
Mkt 46.5
Model 49.4
24 pts6096 pts
7.5% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 49.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
