The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Pittsburgh PanthersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PITT by 12.5market PITT by 16.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.1 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Panthers at 77% to win, with the market at PITT by 16.5.
PITT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: PITT points / scoring opportunity ranks #72, M-OH defends it at #111; the other way M-OH #99 into PITT's #47.
Counterpoint: big plays favours M-OH. M-OH rush explosiveness ranks #20, PITT defends it at #81; the other way PITT #116 into M-OH's #55. The pick still lands on PITT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with PITT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PITT by 12.5 against a market PITT by 16.5: 4.0 points of daylight in M-OH's favour. The model's total is 51.1 against a line of 47.5: 3.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PITT by 12.5 · market PITT by 16.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
PITT passing ranks #50, M-OH defends it at #96; the other way M-OH #65 into PITT's #100.
Rushing game
=
Even
M-OH rushing ranks #29, PITT defends it at #4; the other way PITT #72 into M-OH's #41.
Third down & red zone
PITT
Clear advantage
PITT points / scoring opportunity ranks #72, M-OH defends it at #111; the other way M-OH #99 into PITT's #47.
Big plays
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH rush explosiveness ranks #20, PITT defends it at #81; the other way PITT #116 into M-OH's #55.
Pass protection & rush
PITT
Clear advantage
PITT sack rate ranks #29, M-OH defends it at #102; the other way M-OH #121 into PITT's #72.
Ball security
PITT
Slight advantage
PITT turnovers / game ranks #43, M-OH defends it at #88; the other way M-OH #37 into PITT's #49.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
PITT +4.4 per game over the last five, M-OH +4.2.
Market
PITT
Clear advantage
Consensus has PITT by 16.5; the model says PITT by 12.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PITT by 16.5 · model PITT by 12.5
Mkt PITT 16.5
Model PITT 12.5
← M-OH by 28tiePITT by 28 →
5.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 51.1
Mkt 47.5
Model 51.1
24 pts6096 pts
10.7% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 51.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
