The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
98%Ohio State BuckeyesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OSU by 45.1market OSU by 50.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.3 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio State Buckeyes at 98% to win, with the market at OSU by 50.5.
OSU has the advantage in passing: OSU passing ranks #5, BALL defends it at #124; the other way BALL #54 into OSU's #17.
OSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: OSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #8, BALL defends it at #134; the other way BALL #77 into OSU's #24.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours BALL. BALL sack rate ranks #50, OSU defends it at #126; the other way OSU #64 into BALL's #93. The pick still lands on OSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: OSU has the better last five games by 34.0 points a game (OSU +25.8, BALL -8.2).
Home field is with OSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it OSU by 45.1 against a market OSU by 50.5: 5.4 points of daylight in BALL's favour. The model's total is 45.3 against a line of 55.5: 10.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OSU by 45.1 · market OSU by 50.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU passing ranks #5, BALL defends it at #124; the other way BALL #54 into OSU's #17.
Rushing game
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU rushing ranks #82, BALL defends it at #101; the other way BALL #99 into OSU's #12.
Third down & red zone
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #8, BALL defends it at #134; the other way BALL #77 into OSU's #24.
Big plays
OSU
Slight advantage
OSU rush explosiveness ranks #110, BALL defends it at #129; the other way BALL #67 into OSU's #48.
Pass protection & rush
BALL
Slight advantage
BALL sack rate ranks #50, OSU defends it at #126; the other way OSU #64 into BALL's #93.
Ball security
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU turnovers / game ranks #64, BALL defends it at #121; the other way BALL #54 into OSU's #45.
Form (last 5)
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU +25.8 per game over the last five, BALL −8.2.
Market
OSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has OSU by 50.5; the model says OSU by 45.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OSU by 50.5 · model OSU by 45.1
Mkt OSU 50.5
Model OSU 45.1
← BALL by 28tieOSU by 28 →
2.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 45.3
Mkt 55.5
Model 45.3
24 pts6096 pts
23.4% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 45.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
