The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
90%Houston CougarsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 22.0market HOU by 21
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.0 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Cougars at 90% to win, with the market at HOU by 21.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours ORST. ORST sack rate ranks #17, HOU defends it at #104; the other way HOU #23 into ORST's #42. The pick still lands on HOU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: ORST has the better last five games by 24.6 points a game (HOU +7.6, ORST +32.2).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 22.0 against a market HOU by 21: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 51.0 against a line of 50.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 22.0 · market HOU by 21
ⓘMost of these areas favor ORST, but the model still picks HOU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
ORST
Slight advantage
ORST passing ranks #17, HOU defends it at #93; the other way HOU #7 into ORST's #55.
Rushing game
ORST
Slight advantage
ORST rushing ranks #18, HOU defends it at #73; the other way HOU #61 into ORST's #80.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
ORST points / scoring opportunity ranks #4, HOU defends it at #129; the other way HOU #31 into ORST's #102.
Big plays
=
Even
ORST rush explosiveness ranks #110, HOU defends it at #43; the other way HOU #131 into ORST's #31.
Pass protection & rush
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST sack rate ranks #17, HOU defends it at #104; the other way HOU #23 into ORST's #42.
Ball security
=
Even
HOU turnovers / game ranks #26, ORST defends it at #57; the other way ORST #9 into HOU's #34.
Form (last 5)
ORST
Clear advantage
HOU +7.6 per game over the last five, ORST +32.2.
Market
HOU
Clear advantage
Consensus has HOU by 21; the model says HOU by 22.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,332 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket HOU by 21 · model HOU by 22.0
Mkt HOU 21
Model HOU 22.0
← ORST by 28tieHOU by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 21 and 22.0, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 21. The market is on 21, a number 3.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 51.0
Mkt 50.5
Model 51.0
24 pts6096 pts
3.8% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 51.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
