Probetrics — Sports Analytics

James Madison Dukes

2026: 1-0 · Elo 1706 · #23 of 240 · 20.0 for, 13.0 against · ATS 1-0

Next: vs WAG · Sep 12

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

17061500 = average

Model on this team

No locked picks graded yet this season.

SP+ (2026)
-0.9
SP+ (2025)
+12.3
Talent composite
588
Returning production
8%

How they play

Pass rate
41%
Standard-down share
69%
Plays / game
61
Possession / game
34:13

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Yards / rush
#6 · 5.7
Rush success rate
#17 · 48%
Third-down conversion
#17 · 47%
Rushing PPA / play
#22 · +0.21
Interception rate
#107 · 3.6%
Completion %
#105 · 58%
Passing-down PPA
#96 · +0.23
Stuff rate
#64 · 18%

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Pass success rate
#2 · 30%
Completion %
#3 · 51%
Power success
#4 · 57%
Line yards / rush
#5 · 2.32
Pass explosiveness
#129 · 1.78
Rush explosiveness
#116 · 1.07
Takeaways / game
#78 · 1.21
Interceptions forced
#67 · 2.4%
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1vsLiberty FlamesW 20–13-6JMU 89%
Sep 12W2vsWagner SeahawksJMU 93%
Sep 19W3atSan Diego State Aztecs
Sep 26W4atOld Dominion Monarchs
Oct 3W5vsMarshall Thundering Herd
Oct 10W6atGeorgia Southern Eagles
Oct 17W7vsGeorgia State Panthers
Oct 22W8atAppalachian State Mountaineers
Oct 29W9vsTroy Trojans
Nov 5W10atSouthern Miss Golden Eagles
Nov 14W11atUConn Huskies
Nov 28W13vsCoastal Carolina Chanticleers

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 1 played.