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Wagner Seahawks
0-2 last yr · #219 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium · 80° · Mostly sunny
James Madison Dukes
1-0 · #23 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline WAG +2569 · JMU -50882 books · best WAG +3015 kalshi · JMU -4900 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
JMU -5088
93%
model margin JMU by 25.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 54.0
The read
On rating alone James Madison Dukes are 22.0 points better (#23 vs #219 of 240), and JMU add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: JMU by 25.0
Rating
Clear edge
JMU
JMU rated 22.0 points better on Elo (#23 vs #219).
Home & rest
Clear edge
JMU
JMU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
JMU
JMU +7.0 per game over the last five, WAG −39.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: JMU by 25.0
Wagner SeahawksJames Madison Dukes
1311 Elo · #219
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
JMU +22.0 pts
1706 Elo · #23
road
Home field
JMU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−17.1 pts vs JMU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
JMU +31.3 pts
+14.1 pts vs WAG D
L L · −39.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
JMU +23.0 pts
W · +7.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| WAG | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-0 |
| 8.5 | Points for / game | 20.0 |
| 47.5 | Points against / game | 13.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| WAG | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1311 | Elo | 1706 |
| #219 of 240 | Rank | #23 of 240 |
| −8.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +6.8 |
| −7.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +8.5 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1370 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- JMU +22.0 pts
- Home field
- JMU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- JMU by 25.0
- Model total
- 54.0 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- WAG +2569 · JMU -5088
- Best price
- WAG +3015 kalshi · JMU -4900 polymarketus
| Book | JMU spread | Total | WAG ML | JMU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +3015 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +2122 | -4900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.